Ho Chi Minh City’s apartment market is still struggling to turn new supply into sales. According to Savills’ Q3 2026 data, reported on 17 October, about 1,900 new apartments were launched in the quarter, but only around 1,400 units changed hands, giving an absorption rate of just 25% on primary stock of about 5,800 units. Grade A and B projects made up roughly 80% of new supply. Meanwhile, Savills expects about 6,000 apartments to launch in Q4 – almost 30% fewer than previously forecast, as some developers postpone their plans.
The numbers at a glance
| New apartment launches | ~1,900 units (up q-o-q, below Q3 2025) |
|---|---|
| Share of Grade A & B | ~80% of new supply |
| Primary supply | ~5,800 units |
| Absorption | 25% (~1,400 transactions) |
| Q4 2026 expected launches | ~6,000 units (≈30% below earlier forecast) |
| Villas & townhouses launched | ~3,600 units, over half below VND 10 billion |
| Villa & townhouse absorption | 14% |
Why absorption is so low
The core problem is affordability. New supply is concentrated in the mid-high and luxury segments, where prices have risen far faster than incomes. At the same time, borrowing has become more expensive: State Bank of Vietnam data put average lending rates at 8.4–10.7% a year in August 2026, and once preferential periods end, many mortgages float to the mid-teens. Buyers who need a loan are therefore taking their time, while investors are more selective than in previous cycles.
Savills’ figures confirm that the market is not short of homes on paper – it is short of homes that match what most households can pay. Projects with competitive pricing, a clear legal file and a good location are still selling; the rest are waiting.
Landed homes move to the suburbs
The landed segment tells a similar story. About 3,600 villas and townhouses were launched in Q3, more than half priced below VND 10 billion per unit, but absorption was only 14%. New low-rise supply is shifting to outer suburbs, mainly later phases of large urban areas in the north and south of the metropolitan region – a trend visible in projects such as Vinhomes Saigon Park in the north-west and Vinhomes Green Paradise in Can Gio.
The rest of the market is steadier
Outside housing, Savills paints a more stable picture:
- Offices: nearly 3 million m² of supply, occupancy close to 90%, average rent stable at about VND 870,000/m²/month – although net absorption turned negative in Q3 for the first time in five quarters as some tenants reduced space.
- Retail: about 1.6 million m² of net lettable area, 92% occupancy and a slight rise in ground-floor rents to around VND 1.6 million/m²/month, led by food and beverage.
- Hotels: nearly 17,000 rooms, 70% occupancy in the low season and an average daily rate of about VND 2.4 million.
- Serviced apartments: 85% occupancy across more than 7,000 units, with average rents near VND 600,000/m²/month; some Grade A and B operators have raised prices or cut promotions.
Savills also noted that newly registered FDI in Ho Chi Minh City (pre-merger boundaries) reached about US$9 billion in the first nine months of 2026, which should support demand for serviced apartments and premium rentals over the medium term.
What it means for buyers
- More room to negotiate. With absorption at 25%, developers are using discounts, payment schedules and interest support to attract buyers. Compare total cost, not just headline price.
- Choose legal clarity. Sales are concentrated in projects with complete legal documents. Ask for the eligibility to sell future homes and a bank guarantee.
- Stress-test your loan. Plan for the rate after the preferential period, not the teaser rate.
- Look at completed projects. The secondary market in established projects – for example Masteri Thao Dien or Vinhomes Central Park – lets you see exactly what you are buying.
What it means for landlords and investors
Steady serviced-apartment occupancy and rising FDI are positives for well-located rental units, especially near business districts. But with high financing costs, rental yields rarely cover mortgage payments, so leveraged investment needs a long horizon and a buffer. Investors buying off-plan should also weigh the large pipeline of new supply due in the east and north of the city over the next two to three years.
Outlook for Q4 2026
The cut in Q4 launch expectations shows developers are cautious and are timing releases more carefully. The market is likely to stay two-speed: well-priced projects with strong legal files and infrastructure links will keep selling, while expensive launches in less proven locations will move slowly. Watch the outcome of the National Assembly session that opened on 17 October – revisions to the Housing Law, the Land Law and the Real Estate Business Law could affect supply and procedures in 2027.
Frequently asked questions
What was the apartment absorption rate in Ho Chi Minh City in Q3 2026?
About 25%, with roughly 1,400 transactions on primary supply of around 5,800 units, according to Savills.
How many new apartments were launched in Ho Chi Minh City in Q3 2026?
About 1,900 units, up from the previous quarter but lower than Q3 2025. Grade A and B projects made up about 80%.
How many apartments are expected to launch in Q4 2026?
Savills expects about 6,000 units, nearly 30% below its earlier forecast because some developers delayed launches.
Why are apartment sales slow in Ho Chi Minh City?
Mainly affordability: new supply is concentrated in higher-priced segments while mortgage costs have risen.
How is the serviced apartment market performing?
Occupancy is around 85% across more than 7,000 units, with average rents near VND 600,000/m²/month.
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